Title: The Potential Role of Subclinical Infection in Outbreaks of Emerging Pathogens

Abstract: Many rare or emerging diseases exhibit different epidemioligical behaviors from

outbreak to outbreak, leaving it unclear how to best characterize the relevant facets

that could be exploited for outbreak mitigation/control. Some studies have already

proposed considering the role of active subclinical infections co-emerging and cocirculating

as part of the process of emergence of a novel pathogen. However,

consideration of the role of subclinical infections in emerging disease dynamics

have usually avoided considering the full set of possible influences. Most recently,

the Ebola outbreak 2014 seems to fit all the criteria for possible involvement of

subclinical circulation. We argue that an understanding of the potential mechanism

for diversity in observed epidemiological dynamics may be of considerable

importance in understanding and preparing for outbreaks of novel and/or emerging

diseases.